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Session 2. Priorities, Causes and a Theory of Change
Objective. Choose one or two priorities with clear criteria, look for causes with the five whys and a fishbone, and write a theory of change with assumptions in a blame-free way.
Most school plans fail not because people are lazy but because the plan answers the wrong question. This session helps you choose where to put scarce time, look for causes that the school can change, and write down in one sentence why an action should work. A clear theory also tells you in advance what would show that it did not, which is what makes the review honest.
Key ideas
From a long list to one or two priorities
- A data picture often leaves ten or more worries. A school that tries all of them usually improves none. Choose one or two for the year.
- Score each worry on four questions: how many pupils does it touch, how much does it matter for learning, how strong is the evidence, and can we influence it this year? Add up and talk.
- Separate outcomes (low maths marks) from drivers you can act on (pupils rarely explain their methods). Pick drivers, and say aloud what the school will stop doing to make room.
Causes are guesses until you check
- The five whys: ask "why?" four or five times, and stop at a cause the school can change. A chain that ends at 'lazy pupils' ended too early.
- A fishbone diagram puts the problem at the head and causes on branches: pupils, teaching, materials and tests, school routines, home and community. It helps a group see more than one kind of cause.
- Treat every cause as a guess. Plan one cheap check for the strongest guesses: a two-week tally, ten pupil papers, five short pupil conversations.
A theory of change in one sentence
- A theory of change says: if we do X, then Y will change, because Z. It links an action to a result through a reason, so that others can challenge it.
- Draw the chain: school action, then change in teachers' practice, then change in what pupils do, then the result. Changes early in the chain show first and can be watched weekly.
- A good theory can be wrong. Write what you would see if it were wrong; that is how the review in session 5 will learn something.
Assumptions and blame-free language
- List what must be true for the theory to work: teachers have 15 minutes a month to meet, tasks can be adapted, pupils attend. Check the riskiest assumption first.
- Talk about the system, not the person: 'pupils have few chances to explain' opens a plan; 'the Grade 9 teacher is weak' closes the conversation and the evidence.
- Keep individual pupils and teachers anonymous in cause lists and notes. A cause belongs to the way the school works, not to a name.
From worries to a theory of change
Why a team and a stopping rule matter
A five whys chain written by one person usually follows that person's own view. Ask a small mixed group, for example a teacher, a deputy and a class teacher from another grade, and define the problem as a pattern ('many Grade 9 pupils miss Monday lessons') rather than a single event. Different people will start different chains, and the differences are the useful part.
Stop where the school can act. 'Pupils do not care' is a judgement and ends the search; 'there is no shared marking scale' is a cause the school can change. If a chain ends in a person, go back one step and ask what in the school's routines made that outcome likely. Then test the cause cheaply before acting.
What we do versus what changes
Many plans list activities: a training day, a new form, a monthly meeting. A theory of change forces a second question: what will be different for pupils, and why would the activity cause it? Write the chain in four links: school action, teachers' practice, pupils' behaviour, result. If you cannot say why one link leads to the next, that link is the weak point.
After each arrow ask 'why would that follow?' and 'what must be true?'. The second question produces assumptions, such as teachers having a shared free period or pupils being present. Outside research can support a link, but your own check in your own school decides whether it holds.
Examples from the classroom
Eleven problems in Samarkand
Scene. A Samarkand school lists eleven problems. Instead of voting, the deputy, Dilnoza, gives each a score from 1 to 3 on four criteria on one sheet of paper. In 25 minutes, reading comprehension in Grades 5 and 6 scores highest and Monday absence in Grade 9 second. The group agrees what will pause this year: the new library catalogue project and a school magazine.
Insight. Clear criteria and an explicit 'we will pause' list make choosing fair and keep the plan small.
Homework in Bukhara
Scene. In Bukhara, Jasur's Grade 6 pupils often do not finish homework. First why: they help at home in the evening. Second: there is no quiet place or lamp. Third: the school library closes at 3 pm. Fourth: nobody has asked whether it could open later. The team tallies for two weeks how many pupils leave at 3 pm and plans the library to open until 5 on three days.
Insight. Following the whys until a school routine appears gives a cause the school can change, and a cheap check before action.
The free period nobody had
Scene. A Tashkent school plans peer observation: teachers visit each other once a month, so pupils get better feedback. Aziz asks, 'What must be true?' The team checks timetables and finds that only 3 of 12 teachers share a free period with a colleague in the same subject. Before starting, they move two lessons and give every teacher one shared slot a month.
Insight. Writing assumptions down exposes the practical obstacle before the plan is launched.
Common pitfalls
- Choosing priorities by who speaks loudest instead of by criteria.
- Stopping the five whys at a person or a trait, such as 'lazy pupils' or 'weak teacher'.
- Writing a theory with activities only and no change for pupils.
- Treating a cause as true without a cheap check.
Choose, Dig for Causes, Write the Theory
- Open the Activity Kit: six SAMPLE problem cards from the sample school's picture. Pairs (10 min): score each card 1 to 3 on four criteria (pupils touched, importance for learning, strength of evidence, within our control this year), add up, and pick at most two. Notice which cards are outcomes and which are drivers.
- Trios (15 min): for the priority 'Grade 7 to 9 pupils lose marks on explaining', write a five whys chain, then sort the ten cause cards onto the five fishbone branches. Choose the two causes you would test first and name a cheap check for each.
- Trios (15 min): write the theory of change in the template: If we ..., then ..., because .... Draw the chain from school action to teacher practice to pupil behaviour to result, and list three assumptions with the cheapest way to check each.
- Second short activity (10 min): rewrite the four blame statements in the Kit as system statements that point to a cause the school can test, without any name or character judgement.
- Whole group (10 min): each trio reads its theory of change. The group asks one question: 'What would we see if this were wrong?' Record the answers on the board as warning signs for the review.
- Alone (10 min): write your school-based task from the Kit and the date of your cause-finding meeting with a colleague.
Your facilitator will guide you through this activity in the session.
Questions to discuss
- Which problem card did you first want to choose, and did the criteria change your mind?
- Where did a cause list start to name a person, and how did you rephrase it?
- Which assumption in your theory is the riskiest, and who in your school could check it this month?
Reflect
- What has your school started in the past that was dropped when something else arrived?
- Which cause do you most want to be true, and how could that wish bias your check?
- Who is missing from your cause discussions: a pupil, a parent, a bus driver, a librarian?
Try it tomorrow
- List your school's current worries on one sheet and score each from 1 to 3 on pupils touched, importance, evidence and control.
- Pick one priority and write a five whys chain with a colleague from another subject; stop only at something the school can change.
- Write a theory of change in the form 'If we ..., then ..., because ...' and list its three riskiest assumptions.
Further reading and links
Choose one or two priorities with criteria, treat causes as guesses to check cheaply, and write a theory of change that says why the action should work and what would show it did not.