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Session 4. Analysing Simply and Claiming Fairly
Objective. Organise simple counts and pupils' words, compare after with before, name other explanations and write a fair claim and next step.
Analysis in a small classroom study does not need formulas or software. It needs a clear table, a picture, a few piles of comments and one honest question: what else could explain this? This lesson goes deeper than the key ideas, with a method for reading words and numbers together, and for choosing claim words that match the strength of your evidence.
Key ideas
Put the numbers in one table
- Make a table with one row per lesson: date, phase (before or during), topic, your number, and a note column. Draw a simple bar for each lesson on squared paper.
- Keep raw counts: '14 of 30'. Use an average (the total divided by the number of lessons) to compare before and after. Use percentages only when the groups have different sizes.
- Look at the picture before the arithmetic. A bar chart often shows the story at once, and also shows one odd lesson that needs an explanation.
Read pupils' words by themes
- Read all comments once without judging. Then make three to six piles with a short label, such as 'confidence', 'noise', 'time'. Put each comment in one pile and count each pile.
- Keep one or two real quotes for each theme, without names. Do not hide the comments you dislike: a small pile of complaints may tell you what to fix first.
- Ask a colleague to sort the same comments independently. If your piles match, you can trust the themes more.
Other explanations and small numbers
- For every change you find, ask: what else could explain it? A different topic, a game, a visitor in the room, a holiday, a new seating plan, or pupils being excited by anything new.
- With 30 pupils and a few lessons, differences of 1 or 2 are noise: they happen even if nothing changed. Look for a clear gap that holds in most lessons.
- Check whether your two sources agree. If the tally went up but the tickets and comments did not, say so and be careful.
Write a fair claim and the next step
- A fair claim names the class, the time and the numbers, and says what you can and cannot conclude: 'In my class, in these 8 lessons, ... went from 7.5 to 15. I cannot say the change alone caused it.'
- Do not write 'proved', 'all pupils' or 'always'. You studied one class for a few weeks. Say 'suggests', 'in my class' and 'so far'.
- Decide the next step: keep it, adapt it, drop it or run a second cycle. Name what you will change and which evidence would convince you next time.
From data to a fair claim
Reading numbers and words together
Start with the numbers: one row per lesson, a bar for each on squared paper. Look for the pattern and for the lesson that does not fit. Then read the comments. Sort them into a few piles, count each pile and write a line about each. If your comments say 'it is noisy' and your tally rose, you have learned something: the change may work but costs something in the room.
Treat the words as a way to explain the numbers, not as decoration. A rising tally with comments about confidence tells a story. A rising tally with comments about a game tells a different one. Ask a colleague to sort the same comments on their own; where your piles agree, you can be more confident.
Claim words that match the evidence
Before writing your claim, list other explanations. A different topic, a game lesson, a visitor, absent pupils, the pleasure of anything new, or only a few lessons in each phase can all produce a change. You cannot remove them, but you can name them. Naming them is the difference between a teacher's honest report and an advertisement.
Then pick words that fit. 'In my class', 'in these eight lessons', 'suggests', 'so far' and 'I cannot say that' are true to a small study. 'Proved', 'all pupils' and 'always' are not. Small differences, such as one or two pupils, can happen by chance, so look for a clear gap that appears in most lessons. A fair claim also ends with a next step: keep, adapt, drop or repeat.
Examples from the classroom
The doubling that was not a surprise
Scene. Jasur in Bukhara sees the average number of Grade 5 pupils answering aloud rise from 7.5 to 15 of 30. Before celebrating, he lists the lessons: the last one was a game with prizes, and the topics changed from new ideas to practice. He writes: 'It rose, but I cannot say partner talk alone did this.' Then he plans four more lessons without a game.
Insight. Listing other explanations turns a happy number into a careful next step.
Ten comments, five piles
Scene. After her cycle Dilnoza in Samarkand has ten comments from her Grade 6 class. She makes piles: three about confidence, two about understanding, two about noise, one about time, two about partners. The 'noise' and 'partner' piles are small but give her two practical fixes: a noise rule and changing partners every week.
Insight. Counting themes keeps small complaints visible, and they often show what to fix first.
A result that did not move
Scene. Malika in Tashkent runs a four-week vocabulary game with Grade 8. The 'yes' answers on her exit ticket stay at 12 of 28 before and 13 after. She does not hide it. She writes that the game may not have practised the words on the ticket, and plans a second cycle in which the game uses exactly those words.
Insight. A flat result is still a finding and points to a better next cycle.
Common pitfalls
- Using 'proved', 'all pupils' or 'always' after one class and a few weeks.
- Showing only the nicest comments and dropping the complaints.
- Comparing lessons on different topics or different lengths without saying so.
- Treating a difference of one or two pupils as a real change.
Read the Evidence of a Cycle
- Open the Activity Kit: SAMPLE data from Jasur's Grade 5 class (30 pupils): a lesson table, two exit-ticket results, ten pupil comments and a list of notes.
- Pairs (10 min): draw a bar for each lesson, work out the average before and after, and compare the two exit-ticket lessons.
- Pairs (10 min): sort the ten comments into themes and count each theme. Choose one quote that is useful for Jasur even if it is a complaint.
- Groups (10 min): list at least three other explanations for the change, write a two-sentence fair claim, and agree on Jasur's next step.
- Alone (5 min): look at the evidence you have so far from your own cycle and write your classroom action task from the Kit.
Your facilitator will guide you through this activity in the session.
Questions to discuss
- What did the bar chart show you that the table alone did not?
- Which other explanation worried you most? How could Jasur test it in the next cycle?
- Why is it more honest to write 'in my class' than 'partner talk works'?
Reflect
- When have you decided that a method 'works' after one good lesson?
- Which result would surprise you or make you change your mind?
- Who is your critical friend who could sort your comments independently?
Try it tomorrow
- Put your numbers in one table, one row per lesson, and draw a bar for each on squared paper.
- Sort any comments you have into three to five piles and count each pile.
- Write the sentence 'I cannot say that ... because ...' about your own result.
Further reading and links
Put numbers in one table, sort words into themes, name other explanations, and claim only what the evidence supports.