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Session 2. Improvement Planning: Priorities, Theory of Change, Milestones and Owners
Objective. Choose one to three priorities with explicit criteria, build a theory of change and test its weakest assumptions, set termly milestones with visible products and give every priority and milestone a named owner.
A plan can be well written and still fail because the school chose the wrong things, believed something untested, or left no one clearly in charge. At leader level the work is less about writing and more about choosing, testing and committing. This lesson goes beyond the basic cycle and gives you ways to compare good priorities fairly, to make hidden assumptions visible before they cost you a term, and to set owners and milestones that people can actually keep.
Key ideas
From evaluation to priorities
- A self-evaluation usually finds more problems than a school can fix. Choose with written criteria: effect on pupils, strength of evidence, whether we control it, and whether we have the time and skill. Two or three priorities is a plan; ten is a list.
- State a priority as an outcome for pupils ('Grade 9 pupils attend on Mondays as often as on other days'), not as an activity ('hold a meeting on attendance'). This follows the advice in the Scottish and EEF guidance to pin down a specific, changeable problem.
- Say openly what you will NOT do this year. A priority list without a 'not now' list quietly grows back to ten items by October.
A theory of change you can test
- Course 12.2 introduced a simple theory of change. At leader level, write the whole chain: problem, tested cause, actions, change in teachers' practice, change in pupils' experience, outcome. Each arrow hides an assumption: 'if we do this, then that will follow because...'.
- List the assumptions and rank them by two questions: how important is it to the plan, and how uncertain are we? The assumption that is both important and uncertain gets a cheap test first, such as asking five teachers or five families.
- Prefer actions with evidence behind them. The EEF implementation guidance asks schools to choose practices backed by evidence and then check the fit with their own school, rather than inventing a new programme.
Milestones that show progress early
- Divide the year into three or four milestones per priority, each with a visible product and a date: 'by 15 November, a one-page agreed follow-up routine for absent pupils exists and is used for the first two weeks'.
- Put preparation first. The EEF guide stresses time for preparing: training, materials, agreeing what is core and what may be adapted. Plans that start 'delivery' in September with preparation in October usually stall.
- For each milestone name one leading indicator you can see within weeks (for example, the share of absent pupils contacted within two school days) beside the slower result (attendance over the term).
Named owners and a one-page plan
- Every priority has one named owner who is accountable and every milestone has one person who does it. 'The team' or 'the deputies' is not an owner. Others can be consulted or informed, but the accountable person is single.
- An owner needs time and authority. Ask: what will this person stop doing, and can they call a meeting, change a form or use a lesson slot? An owner without time is a wish.
- Keep the whole plan on one page: priorities, baseline and target, theory of change in one line, milestones, owners and review dates. A plan the staff cannot summarise in two minutes is rarely followed.
A theory of change chain
Choosing between several good priorities
Scoring is a conversation aid, not a calculator. Add a fifth question to the four criteria: what happens if we do nothing this year? Some problems get worse each month (pupils who are unknown to any adult); others can wait (a new website). Look also at the order across years: a hard, slow priority such as pupils' questions in lessons may need two years, while a quick fix such as a follow-up routine for absence can show results in a term.
Mix them. A plan with one slow priority and one quick one keeps energy up and still changes the deep things. Check each choice against the national curriculum framework and ministry regulations, so that the school is not doing optional work at the cost of required work.
Making assumptions visible
Every plan rests on beliefs that nobody has checked. They fall into four groups: about causes ('pupils are late because of the early bus'), about people ('teachers will use ten minutes a day'), about families ('parents will answer phone calls') and about resources ('the room is free on Wednesday'). Put each on a sticky note and place it on a grid with importance on one axis and uncertainty on the other. The top-right corner is where your first checks go.
Checks should cost days, not weeks: ask five teachers, phone five families, count lateness for ten days. The pre-mortem adds a second view: imagine the plan failed and ask why. Together they catch most avoidable failures before the first milestone date. The EEF guide stresses that careful preparation, including checking readiness, is cheaper than repairing a weak start.
Examples from the classroom
Dropping the website in Kokand
Scene. A Kokand school scores five issues. The new website gets the lowest total because its cost is high and it would not change pupils' work. A teacher objects: 'But every school should have one.' The head asks, 'What happens to pupils if we do not have it this year?' Nobody can name one thing. The website goes on the 'not now' list with a note to revisit when the plan's two priorities are running, and the staff accept it.
Insight. Asking what happens if we do nothing separates real urgency from fashion.
Testing the ten-minute assumption
Scene. A deputy in Termez plans for class teachers to phone absent families within two days. She asks five class teachers for their honest view. Four say they cannot find ten minutes before lessons, but all would do it at the end of the second lesson on Monday and Wednesday. The plan changes: calls are made at fixed times, and the deputy takes the calls for the two largest classes. The test took one break time.
Insight. A cheap test of the most important, most uncertain assumption saves a term of silent failure.
Naming one owner in Gulistan
Scene. The Gulistan plan lists 'the methodical association' as owner of the feedback priority. In October nothing has started. The head asks the association to name one person. Nodira volunteers, and the head removes two of her duties on the school-day schedule to give her one free hour a week. A milestone, 'a one-page feedback guide agreed by 15 November', gets her name, and it is ready on 12 November.
Insight. One named owner with released time turns a good intention into a deadline someone feels.
Common pitfalls
- Choosing priorities by who argues loudest instead of by written criteria.
- Writing priorities as activities ('hold meetings') that can be done without any change for pupils.
- Leaving assumptions unwritten, so the plan fails for a reason nobody examined.
- Naming committees as owners, or naming a person without freeing any of their time.
Choose, Test the Theory, Set Milestones and Owners
- Trios (5 min): open the Kit. The sample school (520 pupils) has finished its self-evaluation (session 1) and listed five candidate issues (Table A). You are the leadership team. Read the issues and the four criteria (Table B).
- Trios (15 min): score each issue 1 to 3 on each criterion, add the totals and choose at most two priorities. Write one sentence for what you will NOT do this year and why. Notice where the highest score and your instinct disagree.
- Trios (15 min): for ONE chosen priority fill the theory-of-change chain (Table C). List at least three assumptions, mark the one that is most important AND most uncertain, and design a cheap test that can be done in two weeks.
- Pre-mortem (10 min): imagine it is June and the plan has failed. Each person writes three reasons on slips of paper, silently. Read them out, group them, and pick the two most likely. Write one change to the plan for each.
- Part B (15 min): complete the milestone and owner table (Table D): three or four milestones for the priority, each with a product, a date, a single owner, a leading indicator and what that person will stop or reduce to find the time.
- Peer review (10 min): swap plans with another trio. Use the checklist (Table E) and write two questions on a slip. Hosts answer the questions and fix one thing. Then compare with the sample key.
- Alone (15 min): write your leadership task from the Kit: the priority from your own school, the theory-of-change line, three assumptions to test, the first three milestones with owners and the date you will bring back the one-page plan.
Your facilitator will guide you through this activity in the session.
Questions to discuss
- Which priority did your scoring choose that you did not expect, and which did you drop with regret?
- What was the most important and uncertain assumption, and how cheaply can you test it?
- Who in your school would be an owner with real time and authority, and what would they need to stop doing?
Reflect
- Which item on your current improvement list has no outcome for pupils, only an activity?
- What is the 'not now' list of your school, and who has agreed to it?
- Which owner in your plan is really a committee?
Try it tomorrow
- Take your current plan and ask of each priority: what happens to pupils if we do nothing this year? Cross out one that has no answer.
- Write five assumptions behind one priority on notes, place them on an importance and uncertainty grid and check the top one this week.
- For one milestone, write the product, the date, one name and the one thing that person will stop doing.
Further reading and links
Pick few priorities by written criteria, state them as outcomes for pupils, test the weakest assumption early and give every milestone one named owner with time to do it.