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Session 2. From Idea to Results: Logic Model, Objectives and Indicators
Objective. Build a one-page logic model for a school innovation, write SMART objectives, and choose a few indicators with a baseline, a target and a source of evidence.
A funder cannot see inside your school. A results framework is the window you open: it shows what you will do, what will change for children, and how anyone could tell. It also protects you. When the plan is written as a chain and every arrow has a reason, you see weak points before the money is spent. This session turns your needs statement into a clear logic model, a few SMART objectives and indicators that a busy school can actually collect.
Key ideas
A logic model is a chain from resources to change
- Inputs (books, teacher time, a grant) lead to activities (a daily reading hour), then outputs (what you can count: 12 teachers trained), then outcomes (what changes for people: pupils explain a text in their own words), then long-term impact.
- The most common mistake is to list outputs as if they were results. 'We bought 150 books' says what you did. It does not say whether any child reads better. The Kellogg Foundation guide shows this chain in detail.
- Read the chain backwards to test it: for this result, what activity is enough, and what resources does it need?
Assumptions: the 'because' behind every arrow
- Every arrow hides a belief: if pupils read for 20 minutes daily with books at their level, they will start to explain what they read, because practice with feedback builds the skill. Write these beliefs down as 'if... then... because'.
- Then list outside conditions you do not control: books arrive on time, teachers stay at the school, parents allow reading at home. These are your assumptions, and the weakest ones go into the risk plan in session 3.
- Test the logic with a sceptical colleague. If she can say 'but what if...' about an arrow and you have no answer, add an activity or lower the promise.
Objectives: few, clear and SMART
- One goal says why the project exists. Two or three objectives say what will be true at the end. SMART means Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant and Time-bound.
- Weak: 'Improve reading.' SMART: 'By June, at least 60 of 96 Grade 4 pupils can find the main idea of a six-sentence text in our school reading check, up from 36.'
- 'Attainable' needs honesty. Set the target from your baseline and from what similar changes have achieved in schools like yours. Never write a target you invented to look impressive.
Indicators: how anyone could tell
- An indicator is a sign you can observe or count. Each needs five things: a baseline (where we are now), a target, the source of evidence, who collects it and when.
- Mix numbers with simple stories: a reading check score and also three short examples of a pupil explaining a text. Few indicators, well measured, beat twenty that nobody collects.
- Choose indicators that cannot be gamed. If only the test score counts, teachers may coach the test. Keep the cost of collection small: one 15-minute check per pupil per term is realistic.
The results chain
Test each arrow with 'if, then, because'
A logic model hides beliefs between its boxes. Write each one in full: 'If pupils read levelled books for 20 minutes a day, then more of them will explain what they read, because practice with feedback builds the skill.' The 'because' is the assumption. It may come from your own experience, from a colleague, or from published evidence such as the EEF's notes on implementation. If you cannot say why an arrow should hold, you have found the weakest part of the plan.
Then ask a sceptical colleague to attack the arrows. Each question should produce either a change to the activities (add a teacher training day), a change to the promise (aim at a smaller result) or a new risk for the register in session 3. A plan that has met a sceptic is stronger than one that has met only friends.
Make indicators cheap, honest and hard to game
A good indicator can be collected in a normal school term without extra staff. One short check of 15 minutes per pupil per term is realistic; a daily diary is not. Decide the baseline before activities begin, since it cannot be collected afterwards. Collect the same way each time, with the same task and the same rules, so that changes are real.
Mix one number with one story. A number may show that 60 of 96 pupils find the main idea; three short, anonymous examples of pupils explaining a text show what that means. Avoid indicators that invite coaching for the test alone. Keep records without names, store them safely and share only what the funder needs.
Examples from the classroom
Counting the wrong thing
Scene. A Bukhara primary school runs a Grade 3 number club. Its first plan lists 30 sessions, 40 worksheets and 24 pupils attending. Dilnoza, the methodist, asks, 'What will pupils do afterwards that they cannot do now?' The team rewrites: 'By May, at least 15 of 24 club pupils add two-digit numbers correctly in a 10-item check (now 7).' Sessions, worksheets and attendance become outputs.
Insight. Outputs describe effort; outcomes describe change. Writing the change first makes the activities easier to choose.
An assumption that failed
Scene. A Tashkent school gets tablets for Grade 6 homework, assuming that pupils without books at home will do more reading. Jasur checks and finds that only 9 of 30 pupils in his class can take a tablet home, and four families have no internet. The 'because' behind the arrow was wrong. The school changes the plan to printed reading cards and a classroom lending shelf.
Insight. Testing the assumption early costs a conversation; testing it after buying costs a budget.
The test that began to rule the lesson
Scene. A Samarkand school sets one indicator for a writing project: the mark on the end-of-term essay. Within weeks, teachers drill the essay topics. Malika, the head, adds two indicators: a pupil's draft with one revision, and a short interview where a pupil explains one change she made. The marks stay, but they are no longer alone.
Insight. A single easy number can bend teaching. Pairing it with a second, different sign keeps the real change in view.
Common pitfalls
- Listing books bought or teachers trained as results.
- Writing 'improve' without a number, a date or a baseline.
- Choosing ten indicators because the form has ten rows.
- Setting targets before collecting any baseline data.
Build the Results Framework
- Open the Activity Kit: a SAMPLE project concept (the Grade 4 reading hour from session 1), a logic model with deliberate errors, an indicator table and the SMART checklist. (5 min)
- Alone (10 min): find the errors in the sample logic model (outputs written as outcomes, an activity with no result, a result with no activity). Mark each one.
- Pairs (15 min): rewrite the chain correctly on a blank grid. Write one goal and two SMART objectives and test each with the five SMART questions.
- Pairs (10 min): complete the indicator table for each objective: indicator, baseline, target, source, who collects, when. Cross out any indicator you could not collect in a normal school term.
- Part B, Assumption test (20 min): trade sheets with another pair. Play the sceptic: for each arrow ask 'what if not?'. The authors answer with one change to the plan or one honest limit on the promise. Record both.
- Alone (5 min): write your leadership task from the Kit.
Your facilitator will guide you through this activity in the session.
Questions to discuss
- Which error in the sample model do you also find in plans written in your own school?
- Which indicator did you cross out, and what cheaper sign of the same change did you use instead?
- What did the sceptic ask that you could not answer, and what did you change?
Reflect
- Think of an innovation at your school that ended. What result did it promise, and did anyone check?
- Which numbers does your school already collect that could serve as a baseline without extra work?
- Where have you promised more than your evidence could support?
Try it tomorrow
- Take one of your school plans and mark each item as input, activity, output or outcome with four colours.
- Write three 'if, then, because' sentences for your project and give them to a colleague to challenge.
- Collect a baseline from 10 pupils with a 10-minute task and no names, and record the date and the rules.
Further reading and links
Results are changes for people, not things bought. Write few SMART objectives and indicators you can really collect.